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Urgent news from Donetsk, Lugansk Donbass

Urgent news from Donetsk, Lugansk Donbass
AUGUST - the 2015 War

The final goal of Ukrainian offensive - Uspenka, checkpoint on the Russian-Ukrainian border on the track Ilovaysk - Amvrosievka - Taganrog, the most direct and shortest road route from Russia to Donetsk. It was there, according to the logic management militia, referring to intelligence reports have come out after the new APU capture Ilovaysk and Shakhtersk, and later - to take the boiler Donetsk. In parallel, the Ukrainian army is going to surround Lugansk, and one of the wings are invited to step on a tiny section of the front along the Russian border, crossing wade through tortuous Seversky Donets. Well, a frontal attack on the Mariupol on Novoazovsk, as without it.

All these plans look great on large-scale charts. So it is possible to put forward at the same time the troops on the Rostov to Belgorod - from beautiful drawing arrows still little will change. However, the reality is usually very prevents flight of fancy of the General Staff of Ukraine. Another thing is that the alternative to this plan, just not - there was a configuration of front and aspect ratio. The number of Ukrainian groups is increasing every day. Even daily reports presented at a briefing in Donetsk (and recently earned a format and Lugansk), do not always reflect the whole picture. Continuous reinforcement is brought by rail from the city of Kharkiv Raisins, where last year - before the seizure of Slavic and Kramatorsk - hosted Ukrainian headquarters. This is an extreme point where Ukrainian can bring something to the front rail. Then begins the agglomeration of Slavic and Kramatorsk, and train there for a long time do not go. The army, which is still a few days ago was estimated at 65 thousand people, it is now much more.
APU rely on fast-break front. It's not even the military, but only a political setting: Minsk agreements do not exist, even at the level of propaganda rhetoric. The transition to the new diplomatic negotiations should be more profitable for themselves starting position. So, you need a breakthrough that will present in Kiev as some military success, able to resolve all Moscow's influence on what is happening. To do this quickly inflict irreparable damage, present to the West what some "Russian citizens" and a new map of the region.

Otherwise justify the maintenance of a military training and outright transactions, comparable in scale and character with the frontal attack since World War II, is simply impossible. In addition, such a grouping is extremely expensive contain, not to mention the costs of infrastructure: problems with fuel, food, vehicles, overloaded rail network, and even shortage of conventional buses, which sometimes carries APU soldiers. But standing around a huge mass of mobilized and, to put it mildly, not always motivated soldiers tends to decompose. In the Ukrainian conditions - decompose rapidly with a characteristic odor requisitioned on farms chickens and pigs. A demobilization and removal of most of the regular forces as a result of some political agreements mean moral defeat in Kiev and, therefore, it is absolutely excluded.

Tactics militia

However, the blitzkrieg in the current conditions is hardly realistic. When all the tactical innovations of the APU is not ready for a massive attack to a great depth. Theoretically, one can imagine that a huge mass of troops supported by artillery reached monstrous amount of local success in one or two sectors of the front. It is likely that in the steppe zone APU just such a method, "Nabal" will move 15-20 km and even take several settlements, including a couple of "high-profile" that this victory could be proud of. But what next?
DNI in militiamen Starobeshevo district of Donetsk region. August 15, 2015.
DNI in militiamen Starobeshevo district of Donetsk region.
The troops of the young republics, of course, are inferior in the number of Ukrainian group. This immutable reality - at 40,000,000th Ukraine will always be more soldiers. The same applies to art - especially when you consider that this essential resource as a "trophy completion" has exhausted itself completely. But the armed forces of New Russia (BCH) there is no need to train the personnel. Ever scarce technical personnel in the BCH is now missing. Not a solution to end the problem with the fuel is not with his absence, and with a slightly outdated regulatory system. Even during the battle for Starognatovku fuel equipment allocated strictly "a problem", and tightened supply through to the front of temporal points and not organized. In part because of fears that the Ukrainian artillery methodically take them "to burn": such precedents.

Second Debalcevo
Ukraine has focused on the front line a huge army
A much more serious problem BCH - gaps in tactical coordination during offensive operations. The first symptoms of this scourge appeared still under Debalcevo, and in all its glory proved themselves in the sand and Marinka. Comes "on the shoulders" of the enemy (in the counter) of the militia does not work, and the chance to take and sand and Marinka have been missed from the very serious to - repeat - not-so-numerous republican troops consequences. And it was not just a local collision - control of these localities to seriously change the configuration of the front around Donetsk, created a threat of a new boiler. What usually makes a very sobering effect on the Kiev government, despite all the propaganda hysteria.

It also has its limits and endless manipulation of reserves along the front in an attempt to form a so-called mobile defense. Recall that the Ukrainian army went on the way physical forces and pressure build-up creates almost the entire length of the front. In such circumstances, a mobile defense - that's fine, but it does not guarantee the result, since the commander may accept an elementary wrong decision due to lack of operational intelligence under time pressure during clashes in several areas. However, in fairness, we note that the information field several times leaked rumors about the production of minefields on the tank hazardous areas, although recent fighting near New Balaclava not revealed there is no anti-tank obstacles. Another thing is that of all the tanks that Ukrainians scraped together for this operation, only one wound. But this local case.
However, we know that now there is a saturation of advanced anti-tank weapons and parts are very actively used previously inaccessible electronic warfare and drones. In addition, messages can be concluded on the improvement of quality indicators of the front from the militia - the rate is clearly made to increase the number of technicians. But this is only the tactical moments.

The strategic mistake of Kiev

Strategically, the militias have to wait to break out from the Ukrainian army to then usual, flank attacks to cut off the leading part. All the same, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to organize support for communications, say, Volnovakha to Ilovaysk. For this we need the same number of soldiers, which can not be achieved by any mobilization.
Do not stand up to criticism, and the version of the single-step approach of the entire armada. Of course, in theory it is possible, but actually move the front line with a number of groups (from 60 to 90 thousand people less technical personnel and reserves) would look very negatively it from a political standpoint, and that Kiev to anything. However, the Ukrainian government seems to think that the self-proclaimed republics army will disintegrate as a result of several massive strikes. It would be desirable to note that cases of disorderly retreat and panic in parts VSN for the year of the war are rare (leaving Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Lysychansk currently do not consider it is only about the front battles) and always very specific. In war, terrible, and not all have to be heroes. But imagine a general retreat of large uncontrolled militia forces very difficult.
Minsk march in Warsaw
Why can not the extension "Norman Quartet"
And even harder to imagine that such a large-scale offensive of the whole field army will remain completely unanswered by the Russian. Such scenarios are afraid and do not want to admit in Europe. And so he is unlikely to take place after August 24th (this date will hold talks in the "truncated" Norman format - Petro Poroshenko, Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel). Most likely, the APU limited to local breakout attempt, and then - as it will. Little hard to believe that in the offices of the General Staff in Kiev really developed a per-minute plan for promotion to the Russian border. Rather, the planning horizon - two or three days. Then simply impossible to think of foreign policy considerations. And this lack of foresight in itself - a form of suicide.
In general, it should be noted that the main strategic and political mistake of Kiev - the fact of the formation of such a huge military grouping. This theatrical gun (if such an analogy is appropriate), which is obliged to shoot. The political deadlock (army can not simply dismiss the home) pushes Kiev is a military solution. And requires some very extraordinary diplomatic and political efforts to accelerate the car to stop it.